আলোচনা, অক্টোবর ২৫

This post is for discussing the rapidly evolving political situation

• EE

  have you read David bergman on diplomatic front? if his sources are to be trusted then clearly the resolution must come from within. On the other hand, who knows what Mozena is up to.

  http://bangladeshpolitico.blogspot.com/2013/10/diplomats-warn-government-that-without.html

  

  Bangladesh Politico: Exclusive: Diplomats warn government that without BNP, elections not credible

  bangladeshpolitico.blogspot.com

• CC

  Great…in line with what I was expecting

• FF

  Mozena is failing a reach agreement (with India) about a scenario to bring a 1/11-like Yunus-Abed-led govt.

  That’s what he’s up to.

  *failing to reach

  Madam is aware and looking forward to it, because that govt, no matter stays for how long, will conclude with a free and fair election.

  The deal is being stalled because there is no clear conception what the Army will be up to once in charge.

  I believe if there is even one micro-issue that’s stalling it, it’s Pilkhana trial.

  If a COAS, whoever he is, gets in charge of the country like Moeen did and doesn’t move a rock about the Pilkhana thingy, there’ll be a new situation at the cantonments.

  The Pilkhana part is my assumption, the rest is news.

  On other fronts, there are speculations that Habibur Rahman is going to be interim HoG, following some legislative and constitutional tinkering.

• CC

  Great…that Robindro loving guy wasnt bad

• BB

  very good point re pilkhana.

• FF

  To me understanding, IKB is a highly probably case for turning into a Dracula from a savior for Hasina.

  You all know how the safest COAS choices become the ass kickers.

• BB

  Robindro loving Quran translator. Shahbaghis hate him because he doesn’t believe the 3m number.

• FF

  *my understanding

  *highly probable

• CC

  Yeah…good guy…

• FF

  The way Hasina and her people got poisoned of power, sins and sycophancy, they will not happy about anyone who are not sycophants.

  I remember I regularly published reports at BF on Habib’s ass-kicking comments against the AL govt.

  So Habib is not someone AL will be happy about.

• BB

  If army comes, I feel they will end up ruling for a long while. But that’s just my gut feeling, not analysis or anything based on intel.

• FF

  But he will be considered better than Latifur Rahman. I won’t wonder if that’s precisely what’s Madam’s game is.

  not long time. 6 monts / 1y / 1.5y / 2y

• BB

  6 months is ok. Anything longer and I start getting nervous.

• FF

  US-India has a couple of geo-political concerns for which a 1/11-like govt might be helpful.

  But you have to remember they are in vigorous talks with Madam.

  So, they must be negotiating.

• EE

  They had a clean victory under him in 1996. How can they object? All respectable people turn Chagu after a certain age? LikeShahabuddin?

  I don’t think army will stay long. This time there is very little appetite among the middle ranks. Especially, any long rule will now be perceived as taking the due awards away from BNP.

• FF

  “appetite among middle ranks”. To army middle ranks, when the choice is between AL and BNP, they would choose BNP. And when the choice is between THEM and BNP, they’d choose themselves.

  Even considering the fact majority of the officers are anti-AL for definitive geo-political realities, that makes AL worse than BNP to them, but that doesn’t make BNP better than them to themselves.

  Officers will be happy to take a chance like 1/11 and beat the shit our of the chetona dharis of all ranks.

  But officer’s will doesn’t change things here.

  Game is on about much bigger players.

• BB

  Longer you delay the election, more ‘events’ happen. BNP is on a historic high right now. All the Islamists are united right now. This may not last in 2016.

• FF

  Off course.

  In fact everything other AL is united now.

  I don’t know about Abed, but Yunus talks with Madam’s office more frequently than ever.

  *other than

  Diplomats are up for BNP (to come to election).

  Islamists are up.

  That’s the best scenario (out of it) you can have for BNP.

• BB

  I think it is being decided at the top level. I think KZ and mozena will get a deal. Mozena will ask Indians to pressure SH. Then I have no idea what happens.

  Can Indians pressure SH?

• FF

  They can do two things. Press her. Run her.

  I think still she’s at the point of being pressed.

  But if something unruly (against AL) happens in next 2/3 days.

  She’ll degrade to the level of being run.

  But again, you cannot predict Sheikh Hasina.

• BB

  In that case, will India prefer army or BNP?

• FF

  If someone phones me today to say Sheikh Hasina MMSed a middle-finger photo Madam, I cannot rule that out.

  *photo to Madam

• BB

  Lol.

• FF

  who (other than) were better friends of India than the military rules not run by Zia.

• BB

  Indians are idiots. I think they are fooled by Shahbag and think they can still salvage SH.0

  I know.

• FF

  Indian’s data mining in Bangladesh is better than the our influential homegrown market intel (in fact they employ them all).

  So India has a clear conception of the happenings in Bangladesh, much clearer than ours.

  Orgy Quest (ORG, sorry), PA’s market intel partner is in fact an Agra-based firm.

• BB

  I see.

• FF

  Not only now.

  Even the 2000-01 survey that AC Nielsen did (with PA and Beximco) funds was staffed by Indians (on Darbesh’s payroll).

• CC

  Chandpur theke naki AL polaise

  Ek babshayi janailo

  Jela gulir khobor pawa dorkar

• CC

  Shibir namtese after jumma with a do or die mission

  Army namte pare in 3 days

  Satro dol neme gese

  Mal moshla nia shara deshe

  AL caders will switch side …I think

AA

It is a shame that BNP is banking on shibir and Hefazot street force to do the andolon for them? এই ভাবে ধার করা শক্তি দিয়ে আন্দোলন হয় না – Suppose if AL goes into a backdoor deal with Jamaat about the hanging of Jamaat leaders in exchange of

Jamaat’s absence from the street – what BNP will do?

Or if BNP has to go to power using Jamaat or hefazot muscle – what return BNP will give them while in power?

EE

AA, it is a net good thing that BNP does not have street power to launch a strong movement on its own. Political parties should be political. If in the end, all becomes tribal fighting, then the country is doomed. I think that an opportunist, venal party is far better than a fascist cadre party.

Jamaat will extract its pound of flesh from BNP if it comes to power but it will not be extravagant. Just as BNP needed Jamaat muscle, Jamaat also needed BNPs support to keep them afloat in this crucial year. Having seen the depth of precipice from the edge, they will not push their demands too much.

BB